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How about "Wolf of Wallstreet"? No one in there right mind could say Leo did not absolutely deserve the award for that movie. No way.
I was convinced he was going to win there, and I thought then that they would do so because he had been so snubbed in the past, especially for the Aviator (my personal favorite of his). But I am even more confident this time around, simply because the competition just isn't there like it was in 2014.
Remembering back, there was:
Christian Bale, "American Hustle"
Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyer's Club" WINNER
This year, no one in my opinion stands out to compete with Leo. I can almost bank on the fact that he wins, even when it's like both of you said, not his best work to date.