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This surprised me. I wrote a blog on this site about how to predict the best picture winner. And while I stand by my logic, I think it needs to be caveated with this video on how the actual Academy votes on best picture nominees --
This is the wrong way to determine the best film of the year. Sure, this method works well for picking Heismann trophy winners and MVP candidates in sports. But for the Oscars, Vox is correct, it's far too safe.
They changed the voting method after 2005, when it was simple: the film with the most #1 votes wins. Easy. Straightforward. Correct.
Now they add up points, which allows for films that rightly should be considered 2nd or even 3rd place winners to win the whole thing, especially when there is a polarizing film in the mix. The title of this youtube vid by Vox says it perfectly: the Academy is now awarding safe movies.
This year I think La La Land will win. I wonder how many voters voted on it as the #1 film? Probably not nearly as many as voted on it being #2 or #3. But that won't matter if there is no consensus on the #1. Maybe the voters are split and polarized on the other 2 films that I think are more deserving: Moonlight and Arrival. I could see many more #1 votes for both of those films. But also many more #4 and worse votes, making it's average drop.
What do you think about this? Think the Oscars do it correctly, or should they go back to the simpler days?